Market Crash, Correction, or Stability?

Some buildings and floor plans have remained stable, showing no signs of pricing stress or reduction. Other buildings are experiencing a significant price drop, with values falling back to 2021 levels.  The average price per square foot tries to balance a very segmented market, but it can be misleading.  Here are a few examples:

• Shores of Panama is selling at $400 per square foot
• Treasure Island is selling at $434 per square foot
• Ocean Villa is selling at $458 per square foot
• Long Beach Condominium is selling at $460 per square foot
• Gulf Crest Condominium is selling at $550 per square foot
• Calypso Condominium is selling at $630 per square foot

Market Crash, Correction, or Stability?

A Few Buildings Have Crashed

Market downturns are characterized by a significant decline in property values, often exceeding a 20% drop from peak prices within a year. In Panama City Beach, a handful of condominium buildings have experienced such downturns, primarily because of a series of questionable decisions made by their associations in previous years that are now impacting those particular properties.  The Shores of Panama stands out as a notable example, with several articles highlighting ongoing issues for over five years.

Condo pricing is 1.9% lower for the year. Even with Covid, the condo market is holding its own. A decade of strict lending requirements created a market of financially sound owners. Panama City Beach will navigate 2020 with ease, but don’t expect average values to be significantly higher this year.

Update 6/12/21:   We are now at prices where preconstruction number should have worked for developers.  Calypso is selling condos above 475 per square foot.  One of the remaining challenges for developers is financing construction.  I will have a new article soon.

Original Article: Three years after my 2017 Preconstruction Condo Sales in Panama City article, not much has changed. We are still years away from new preconstruction condo projects breaking ground in Panama City Beach. Recent sales include a Calypso 2 bedroom + bunk floor plan for $477,000, and a Palazzo 2 bedroom + bunk floor plan for $465,000. It will be quite some time before we see enough buyers willing to pay $570,000 for the same floor plan in a preconstruction project. That is roughly the price point needed for preconstruction to be profitable. I believe resale pricing needs to increase at least another 20% before we see any measurable preconstruction reservation and contract demand. It is also important to understand Calypso and Palazzo are on the west side of Panama City Beach.